Catwoman / Bourne Supremacy

[Oren1]

did WSEX really not set a line for I, Robot? Whats the deal, they better have lines out for these 2.

Catwoman, whats up with this movie, it cost over 100 million and a lot of people are predicting it's going to bomb, not surprisingly. But it might not do that bad. Wait, stop the presses, it's #1 on moviefone? How low can they set this line? Is Catwoman actually going to go OVER?!

Bourne 2: first one opened with a decent 27 and went on to make 121 million due to good word of mouth..... but where is the buzz for this one? it's not even registering... I mean, come on, The Butterfly Effect has a higher buzz score than this movie. it looks like an unispired re-hash of the first... I'm kinda torn on this one being a big fan of the first, I thought it did the whole spy movie thing perfectly, but the second one might just fall on its face for some reason...

 

[joethor]

the line at wsex for i robot was 42.5. they posted it about 9:00pm pacfic time on thursday night.

 

[joethor]

comic book junkies hate and i mean hate this film. many audiences have booed when the trailor runs. that being said, im looking for a gross between 20-25 million. the bourne supremacy could be an excellent under opportunity. damons star has burned and i see limited interest in the sequel.

 

[Oren1]

it depends on how low the line is, because I imagine the tracking is going to predict the low public interest in this film, regardless of the high expectations a lot of people on the internet have for it.

 

[Oren1]

then again, the oddsmakers probably know the highish predicitons a lot of people have and might adjust the line upwards. (?) For one, the HSX price is over 100 dollars (and dropping somewhat fast), and I feel pretty confident shorting it.

 

[Oren1]

shocking news: they've switched positions on moviefone. I wonder why Catwoman was high on the chart so early this week... Bourne still isn't on the buzz chart, either, which is kinda strange considering the first one was apparantly the most rented video from last year. I would expect to at least see a score in the low teens, but who knows maybe it's meaningless.

 

[Oren1]

o.k. I haven't been paying attention to the Yahoo movie chart this summer, so don't have a comparison, but, Bourne is #4, and Catwoman is #5. It usually seems pretty hard to make it on that chart prior to the movie's release so they both seem to have good rankings, although Catwoman's could be due to bad publicity.

 

[Oren1]

well what to you know, the lines are already up. I have to admit I'm a bit surprised to see OVER 42.5 for Bourne set at -180. AG you must be drooling to see that... I'm going to stay away from Catwoman I think...

think my record is 15-20 +0 units

taking:
Bourne Supremacy under 42.5 +140 3 to win 4.2

something just isn't right. who is betting the over for Bourne? even the highest predictions on the net generally don't eclipse the 40 mark.

[This message was edited by Oren1 on July 22, 2004 at 04:08 PM.]

 

[Gillian]

Hey Oren,

Go check out Catwoman's trailer... it's fu-kin terrible. Doesn't even show a story.

 

[Hitman26]

Oren I saw what you posted and I went straight to WSEX, opened an account and wagered on the under 42.5 +130 for this movie. I don't care if it does 100 million I love this bet.



Hitman

 

[Oren1]

looks like it should be an easy win, but nothing really surprises me anymore. Gil, I suspect the reason they aren't showing any of the story is because that would mean they'd have to show some of the terrible dialogue and acting, haha

 

[joethor]

i am in shock, that 42.5 looks like an early christmas present. are we missing something?

 

[Oren1]

I have no idea.... maybe the tracking actually is saying over 42.5, and WSEX set the line lower than the tracking thinking that we were all going to bet the under and potentially lose, but maybe there's someone betting on it that knows the actual studio projections and they bet the over, hence the lop-sided juice. I'm still not sure weather or not WSEX moves the juice themselves in an attempt to manipulate our betting, I guess the answer to that is no? it seems like the line movements are controlled by a computer and they always open at an even -115.

That said, all the internet buzz indicators would suggest under 42.5 is a no-brainer.

 

[joethor]

nothing i have seen justifies that number. if its a trap consider me trapped.

 

[Gillian]

lots of advertising. Free movie coupon in the DVD package that came out, which I'm told will count in the totals. I'm not touching it.

 

[joethor]

good points gill. even with that, i think its a freddy/jason level error on the part of the books.

 

[Oren1]

for once I got in at the right time. the under is now at EVEN.

 

[Gillian]

There are some nice prices for Bourne Supremacy at INTERTOPS:

Box Office Opening Weekend Gross: The Bourne Supremacy

3-day weekened

USD 25 million to 40 million... +125
USD40 million to 46 million.... +130
USD 46 million or more .........+185
USD 25 million or less......... +600

 

[Gillian]

Oh shoot... just found out Berry was on Oprah and it was a big Catwoman special.

 

[Oren1]

you take the Catwoman under Gil? Not even the mighty Oprah can save that train from derailing.